Monday, December 2, 2019

Will Trump's "Unswayables" Deliver an Electoral Victory?

Good Day World!

Republicans in the last seven presidential elections have only won the popular vote once, when George Bush pulled off the feat in 2004.

Since then, the Republican Party has relied on the Electoral College to get their candidates elected. By concentrating on swing states in the last decade the GOP has managed to build up a red firewall.

They accomplished that through voter suppression and gerrymandering. The combination has allowed Republicans to fill offices in the key states, effectively controlling the voting process in each one.

Trump is counting on his "unswayable" base to hold the red line in each of those states - Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

But this is not 2016. 

The 2020 election is going to be referendum on what's happened during the Trump regimes four years of chaos.

What about those "unswayable" supporters though? They'll still be there in 2020.

Let's drill down on that hard core base to see what their chances are of keeping Trump in office in the next election:

Let' warm up with an analysis of Trump supporters in a recent report from Psychology Today.

Next, a Nov. 3rd Fox News poll showed 41 percent of registered voters are against impeaching Trump. Of them, 57 percent say no new evidence could cause them to change their minds.

If that poll is accurate, it would put Trump's true base at 23 percent of registered voters. Not very impressive for a president trying to get re-elected.

It comes down to where the majority of Trump's unswayable base are in the five critical swing states. Can they duplicate 2016? 

Or, has the political landscape shifted the other way with the Democrats repeated electoral victories in 2018, and 2019?

There's a lot of variables to consider, especially with Trump's impending impeachment this month. It could motivate some people to vote for him, or against him. 

Another consideration that could sway the election against Trump is the numerous lawsuits he's fighting to conceal his taxes.

The chances of getting his taxes, and accounting firm records, have been improving with recent court victories for the House of Representatives. There's a very good chance that could happen next spring.

If they show that Trump was cheating the IRS, his captive Republican support in the Senate would melt like butter on a hot stove. Some facts are unassailable, even for partisan Republican senators.

Are there enough "unswayable" Trump minions to carry him to another victory? 

For the country's sake, I hope that the empowered minority of fanatics don't carry Trump across the finish line again.

Time for me to walk on down the road...   

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