Ever since I took an Empirical Research class in college, I've been suspicious of polls and how accurate they really were. For good reason. There are multiple ways to manipulate polls in order to get a desired outcome.
What can you do to vet a poll before participating?
1. Check to see who is conducting the poll.
2. Find out who paid for the poll.
3. What questions were asked?
4. When was it carried out - and especially how was it conducted?
1. Methodology and Accuracy. For example, there's sampling issues that have to be considered like Non-Random Samples, Declining Response Rates, and differential Representation.
2. Influence and Impact. The publication of poll results can influence public opinion, potentially creating a "bandwagon effect" or "underdog effects."
3. Transparency and Accountability. Not all polling organizations are transparent about their methodologies, making it hard to assess the credibility of their results. Bias from funding sources influences the poll's design and interpretation leading to biased results.
Because human beings are complicated, they all don't believe in the value of polling. It can be argued that polling is a benefit because it's a tool for gauging public opinion. But there's plenty of people who flat out don't believe in polls.
Despite massive rallies for Kamala Harris and pundits saying it was a neck-to-neck race...it wasn't that close.
Trump won the popular vote by 3.2 million votes, the first time a Republican had done so since President George W. Bush won reelection in 2004.
Since then, I've declared open season on pollsters who just confuse people for a host of reasons. I think poll-bashing should be a national sport.
As it Stands, I believe people can still vote intelligently without following polls that are often propaganda for one political party or the other.
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