Imagine a country that has two MAGA political parties vying for power. That's Brazil today.
It's election day in Brazil where the country is facing a rematch of its bitter 2022 contest - with a twist. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is facing Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of the man he narrowly defeated four years ago, Jair Bolsonaro.
Like Trump's attempted coup in 2020, Jair Bolsonaro tried to overthrow a legal election in 2022 and was convicted and is currently serving a 27-year sentence for plotting the coup, unlike Trump who has gotten away with his coup attempt.
The younger Bolsonaro has promised to pardon his daddy if he gets elected. Lula, who like Trump is 80-years old, is seeking a fourth presidential term.
The result will determine whether Brazil stays with Lula's left-leaning government or returns the Bolsonaro movement to the presidency.
If no candidate for president or governor receives more than 50% of the valid votes today, the two candidates with the most votes will continue to a runoff in Oct. 25.
Brazil uses electronic voting machines and typically counts the results within hours in a clear contrast to what happens in the United States where results take days or weeks to announce.
Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump are buddies and have a lot of the same views on running an authoritarian regime. But Lula was no saint either. He was jailed on corruption and money laundering charges in 2018, but the Supreme Court annulled his convictions in 2021 on procedural grounds.
It's a bit of a stretch to say Lula's government has been a democratic success but it's not as aligned with Trump as Bolsonaro is. Voters will have a choice of MAGA One or MAGA Two candidates. By tonight we'll know who is going forward.
Both political camps inspire intensely loyal supporters similar to Trump's followers. Bolsonaro supports a hardline approach to crime-fighting that he's suggested could include joint work with the U.S. Military, while Lula has favored operations targeting the financiers of gangs and voiced skepticism of outside countries influencing Brazil's security problems.
It's no wonder Brazilian voters are worried about corruption like American voters who see that as a priority. The good news is Americans have a clear choice between corruption and enforcing laws if the Democrats regain control of Congress. It's not that clear cut in Brazil.
America has become an unusually visible presence in this year's campaign. Rallies for Flavio Bolsonaro have featured U.S. flags, reflecting his pledge to align more closely with the Trump regime.
Flavio's brother, Eduardo, is living in the United States, where he has urged Trump to take action against Supreme Court justices who oversaw his father's coup-plot trial. Last year, Trump cited that trial as a justification for hiking tariffs on Brazil by 40%.
Yuri Sanches, head of political analysis at Brazilian polling and analysis firm AtlasIntel, says a narrow Lulu victory could prompt Bolsonaro supporters to challenge the result.
If that sounds familiar with what's going on in the American midterms don't be too surprised. MAGA has taken root in Brazil. Americans are fully expecting, and preparing for, numerous illegal challenges when Republican candidates lose in the fall.
As it Stands, my heart goes out to the millions of Brazilians facing such an unpalatable choice for their leader.
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