Pollsters Think They Can Predict the Future - News Alert! They Can't

There were no pollsters back in the day. 

From the earliest civilizations humanity depended upon seers and shamans to predict future events. The actually held honored positions in society.

Those soothsayers are still around, but they have a limited audience because of pollsters. In America thanks to the first Gallup Poll 65 years ago pollsters have been disappointing us with inaccurate predictions.

Fact. Polls are always wrong.

A modern example...

In the weeks leading up to the November 2016 election, polls across the country predicted an easy sweep for the Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. We all know how that turned out. Four years of Trump trying to destroy democracy.

One of the things I learned in college was not to trust polls. There are so many variables in the methodology that it's impossible to guarantee accurate results. When a pollster's prediction does turn out to be right, they hail their accurate scientific methods as the result.

Note: pollsters are optimists and dreamers who share their personal polling methods with politicians and the public.

Just don't bet on pollsters. You'd probably do better betting on the horses. I've seen people absolutely devasted when the polls they were following were wrong, and their candidate lost. Once again think about the 2016 election.

More people mourned the results in that election than ones who celebrated their unexpected windfall, as evidenced by Clinton winning the popular vote.

Political pundits talk about submerged voters. It's a cute way of saying there are voters who don't respond to telephone polling or online polling. 

They tend to be conservatives and Independents like me who don't want to waste their time answering senseless questions about upcoming elections and candidates. Apparently, Democrats are more likely to respond to pollsters according to a poll... if you believe the poll is right.

I mentioned earlier that prophets and seers were often honored in their communities. If modern pollsters want to gain that status in society, they're going to have to gin up their act.

Some suggestions.

Pollsters need to jazz up their appearance. Purple robes, a coned hat, and wands should be mandatory. 

Pollsters should take a tip from shamans and make their predictions so hard to understand that people are left puzzling them out.

Pollsters need to expand their act in public with fireworks and acrobats leading up to the arrival of a posh-looking smooth-talking pollster.

Pollsters only get paid if their predictions are right.

As it stands, my prediction for the midterms is someone is going to win... and someone is going to lose. You can take that to the bank.

The Joys and Sorrows of Being a True Sports Fan

The following is an insider's observations (Photo of me above) on sports fans.

My credentials consist of Laker memorabilia covering four walls, the ceiling, and displayed in bookcases and glass cabinets of my Laker Room. I've been a Los Angeles Laker fan since 1962.

The Joys of Being a Sports Fan

True fans take on a team's identity and consider themselves both players and coaches. Some go as far as adopting players and giving them advise while watching them compete.

When their team wins the pure joy is like a shot of adrenaline for 24-hours. Fans of the same team gather in front of TVs and arenas nationwide like packs of feral dogs swilling beer and other alcoholic beverages.

A win is a time for celebration and to brag about how good your team is. Smack talk reverberates on the internet like a swarm of bees as game winners metaphorically strut around the web like a rooster who added another hen to his harem.

True fans favorite source of entertainment is talking about their team's player statistics and history. The sense of belonging, knowing there are other crazy people who spend too much time on sports, is a fantastic experience.

The Sorrows of Being a Sports Fan

When your team loses a game, you drape black curtains on the windows and are unapproachable for a long period of time.

True fans also hold mock wakes after their team loses followed by an autopsy seeking answers to the tragedy. 

It's not unheard of for fans to believe a conspiracy is afoot when their team loses a game. They're convinced the other side has cheated or the team's front office has been taken over by chimps in MAGA hats.

The stigma among sports fans who follow a losing team is brutal as other fans ridicule their team regardless of if it wins or loses. 

The sense of loss is acute when the superstar of a team goes down and is out for the season. That kind of blow leaves fans mindlessly drooling and complaining about the fickle finger of fate.

Some Last Thoughts About Sports Fans

**People who marry true sports fans must truly be in love and also be ready when their mate acts like a pissed-off juvenile when their team loses a game.

**Sports fans can be moody on game day.

**Sports fans often binge on junk foods during games.

**It's not unusual for sport fans to drink alcohol before, during, and after a game to gin up the excitement. 

**Never interrupt a sports fan during a game or you'll suffer their wrath and hours of whining.

As it stands, our society is stocked with sports fans who finance professional sports. Without them there would be no teams to root for.

Lessons I Learned from Other Species

My experience with inside knowledge of other species includes having the following pets: cats, dogs, a monkey, a goat, chickens, rabbits, and a hamster named Zig Zag.

Lessons I Learned

Cats - have dual personalities, cuddly one moment and a feline version of Edward Scissorhands the next. Most aren't particularly social and can be really rude. They taught me to always look for a super comfortable place to sleep.  

Dogs - Have taught me what loyalty really is. I discovered they have superpowers. They can tell if you're sick with something, if you are tense, sad, or scared. They willingly give up their lives to save you from danger. They taught me to be goofy.

A Monkey - I had one in Vietnam named George. His curiosity was endless inspiring me to be snoopy. Monkeys are great mimes and are good partners when playing charades.

A Goat - My goat's name was Stonewall Jackson and he loved sneaking up behind you and butting your ass out of sheer orneriness. I learned how to be stubborn as a rock. He also demonstrated how to get along with other species - like his best buddy a chicken.

Chickens - Taught me what a pecking order is. They also demonstrated how roosters are good dads by protecting their feathered harem and chicks 24-hours a day. 

Rabbits - As a toddler they inspired me to jump which led to a love of basketball. They taught me to be more passive and to not going around bullying others unless I wanted to end up in a stew.

A Hamster - a week after I married the prettiest girl in the world, we bought a hamster and named him Zig Zag. He never stopped moving. At night we'd hear his little Ferris wheel spinning furiously as he sought a distant land. He taught us you can't be going day and night without bad results. We found him one morning silently laying inside the Ferris wheel. We think he had a heart attack. Lesson learned.

My extensive knowledge of other species has also come from visiting zoos and watching National Geographic. 

Hints about some other species

**Don't try to pet a shark as they are perpetually pissed off. 

**Don't corner a skunk.

**Don't screw around with a Honey Badger because they will chase you to the gates of hell.

**Don't trust primates because they are too much like humans with bad habits.

**Don't try to outswim a crocodile.

**Don't bother trying to out stare an owl.

**Don't try to teach giant sea turtles' tricks. Their slow learners and will probably outlive you. 

**Don't get into an eating contest with a pregnant 300-pound sow.

As it stands, I hope you find this post educational and don't think I'm writing from a padded cell!

Oh, Poor Me! Pity Club Chapter Accepting Members

You're probably wondering what a Pity Club is all about? 

And how can you join?

You came to the right place.

The Oh, Poor Me chapter of Pity Club offers members an opportunity to tell a sympathetic group how rough your life is. Each member gets ten-minute outbursts. Once everyone gets a turn another round is kicked off if there's still time.

What Are the Rules?

-Members pay $20.00 a meeting towards a jackpot. At the end of the session the person with the most pathetic stories (a vote is taken) wins the jackpot.

-Yearly membership is $1,200. One of the benefits is a card that gives discounts for all Oh, Poor Me Pity Club merchandize like coffee cups and t-shirts.  

-No interrupting the speaker when they are sharing their sorrows.

-The oldest person in the group is the moderator and president because they have the most experiences to complain about.

Why Join a Group of Whinners?

Have you ever tried telling a family member or friend why they should pity your rough life? It doesn't always hold their attention, or in many cases their just tired of hearing your daily complaints.

So, where do you go to get some respect for your miserable life? Join The Oh, Poor Me chapter of the soon to be international Pity Club.

Group Activities

Once a month the group gathers at a nearby park to play games like Corn Hole or Croquet.

The winners have to listen to the losers' complaints about cheating or having sudden muscle spasms that threw their aim off.

Every Sunday the group has a Bar-B-Que with all the fixings. Each member shares their most humiliating moments while attending past family Bar-B-Ques.

Future Club Goals

-Form a singing group that can travel to Pity Club conventions. Suggested name, "The Whinners."

-Members all learn to get people to pity them in another language.

-Members willing to travel abroad and spread the Pity story across the planet.

-Achieving tax-exempt status by claiming complaining is a sacrament in their church.  

As it stands, I'm wrapping this post up with a quote by Debbie Macomber (Mrs. Miracle), "It's all right to sit on your pity pot every now and again. Just be sure to flush when you are finished." 

You Know It's Time for a Change When...

 

"If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change you attitude." - Maya Angelou

You know it's time for a change when...

** ...the cat box stinks so bad the wall changes color.

** ...your favorite pair of shoes falls apart, and your toes stick out.

**...your socks are so dirty and stiff after you take them off, they walk away on their own.

**...you cry during comedies and laugh at slasher movies.

**...your mind is so warped you believe everything Trump says.

**...indoor movie theatres post disclaimers - "No guarantee a crazed killer won't stop by."

**...people who walk by you hold their noses.

**...your audiences keep walking out before you finish your act.

**...you lose an election for city Dog Catcher to a cat.

**...you've been robbed while working in the same liquor store at least twice a week for a year.

**...people won't take you seriously because you dyed your face blue and implanted peacock feathers on the top of your skull.

**...your young children don't believe in the "Tooth Fairy" anymore and go directly to you for money.

**...corrupt justices in the Supreme Court take away people's rights and freedoms.

**...if your political party believes in Jewish Space Lasers, taking away women's rights, and QAnon conspiracies.

**...TV characters are talking to you, and you can't get a word in edgewise.

**...your best friend's wife/husband comes on sexually to you. 

**...the big Men in White Jackets come to visit you.

As it stands, while writing this post I discovered Heraclitus wrote, "The only constant change in life is change."

Punching Bags for Kids Has Come a Long Way

I was in elementary school when I got a plastic punching dummy. It was Bozo the clown.

I didn't have anything against clowns, but I hurried home every day to pummel mine. Looking back, I suspect my parents knew I had anger issues (I think it had something to do with holding the 3rd Grade record for most visits to the principal's office in one school year). 

Alas! My clown only lasted a month before it could no longer hold air.

Fast forward to now

Plastic punching bags for kids have improved. Their made from a durable and thick vinyl material designed to withstand the elements and really angry children's repeated assaults on it.

For example:

Boxerpoint Inflatable Punching Bag - 

It's 63" high and comes with its own training stand to hold up against vigorous hits and kicks.

It's perfect for aggressive toddlers and older kids. The extra thick 0.4mm PVC is non-toxic and can withstand strenuous use. It sets up in minutes and uses water or sand in its base.

Children in the 21st century aren't satisfied with circa 1950s plastic clowns. 

Not when they can pick from nearly every superhero and villain they like and beat the hell out of it knowing it'll be around for a long time.

I'm waiting to see if these new bad ass punching bags become collector items.

Punching Bags, I'd Like to See

** The Trump Punching Bag complete with arms and tiny hands, a soiled diaper, and an orange face. It comes with a secret compartment in the base full of replica classified US government files). 

** The Alex Jones Punching Bag features a new sound element; he whines every time you hit him in his fat face. The newly designed vinyl body has another revolutionary element; it bruises when hit hard enough. (The bruises fade away in a day).

** The Lindsey Graham Punching Bag has two faces - front and back - that give a sick smile every time you smack, punch, or kick one side.

Before punching bags became available children used each other as punching bags. They still do when given the opportunity, but since the arrival of punching bags they have other options that don't involve assault charges.

As it stands, I'm still waiting for an epic poem to be written and dedicated to Punching Bag Dummies.

Reincarnations I'd Like to See

Millions of people believe in reincarnation. 

This post is not about making fun of their beliefs. 

It's a parody about who I'd like to see that died and came back as ... let's just say something funny.

The Political Lineup

Donald Trump returns as a cockroach.

Lindsey Graham returns as a Pregnant Black Woman.

Matt Getz returns as a 16-year-old teenage girl.

Mitch McConnell returns as a Turtle.

Kevin McCarthy returns as an Ostridge. 

Margie Taylor Green returns as Black Illegal Immigrant from Ethiopia trying to cross the Mexican border into the US.

Bernie Sanders returns as a Superior Court Judge.

Joe Manchin returns as a poor coal miner somewhere in a red state.

Nancy Pelosi returns as a stockbroker for the stars and CEOs of major corporations.

Kyrsten Sinema returns as a traitor during the Civil War. (BTY - Historians still aren't sure which side she was really on)

Elizabeth Warren returns as senior bookkeeper for Elon Musk.

Tim Kaine returns as Micky Roony's doppelganger.

The Famous Leader Lineup

Vladimir Putin returns as a Ballerina in Russia's Bolshoi Ballet.

Xi Jinping returns as a gay Uyghur in charge of burning shit in a Chinese "re-education facility."

Kim Jong-un returns as Dancing Donkey performing for a circus located somewhere in Siberia.

Mohammed bin Salman returns as a trans Jewish prostitute roaming the streets of Riyadh.

Ali Khamenei returns as a Boy Toy for Benjamin Netanyahu and his hard right followers.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan returns as a Harem Girl in 15th century Turkey.

Famous Movie and TV Stars

Tom Hanks returns as the President of the United States.

Jon Stewart returns as a Supreme Court Justice.

Steven Colbert returns as mild-mannered Clark Kent/AKA Superman.

Mila Kunis returns as Volodymyr Zelensky's choice to lead Ukraine after he gets out of politics and goes back to being a comedian.

Meryle Streep returns as Queen Victoria during the height of her 63-year reign.

Sharon Stone returns as a Domitrix for MAGA followers who enjoy being punished.

It's been fun.

As it stands, thanks for stopping by and being part of the 14,000 plus daily readers that stop by to check out my ramblings.

New Civilian Award Proposed for Parents Who Teach their Teenagers to Drive

I'll start this post off by pointing out that my wife taught our three sons how to drive. 

By the time they were old enough to drive I was burnt out teaching family members how to drive. But I digress. That's a post for another day.

I've been unable to come up with any stats on how many parents in America teach their children how to drive. As you are aware there's other options like paying someone else to take on the task.

But today I'm celebrating those daredevil parents who take their children out for their first driving experience.

Imagine the guts it takes to allow a teenager behind a wheel when their only driving experience was video game vehicles. Not everyone is that brave.

I think we need to come up with an award for those dedicated parents who don't even get combat pay for risking their lives. For instance, they could get free psychiatric care for life. 

Like nurses, teachers, and animal rescue workers, parent's contributions to society are seldom recognized nationwide.

Proposed Categories

** Most hours without vomiting from fear.

** Seizing control of the steering wheel at least once to avoid a head-on with another vehicle.

** Most obstacles narrowly missed in one lesson

** Parents that have taught the most offspring to drive (I think Mormons would have an edge in this category.)

** A category for parents who don't go crazy or develop nervous ticks after completing their mission.

As it stands, I have a nagging feeling there should be more categories. If you have any suggestions, please email me (richarddavestancliff@gmail.com

There's Never Been True Equality in America: Get Over It!

It's time to set the record straight.

When our ancestors created that sacred document known as the Constitution, it only applied to a narrow segment of people living in America at the time.

One of the most hypocritical statements in the Constitution states, "all men are equal." Having slaves - as many of the signers did - was considered okay. The dark-skinned slaves didn't count like other humans.

From the start, white-skinned people enjoyed their freedom and ability to govern themselves by creating a government that favored the wealthy and perpetrated their ideology.

One of their biggest mistakes the founders made was creating a stratum of government that did not have to adhere to the rules of the land. 

Thus, our flawed judiciary system came with lifetime appointments to the Supreme Court. Justices are nearly untouchable regardless of what laws or crimes they rack up. They can lie - see the three Trump justice appointees' confirmation hearings - and no one can do anything about it.

While we're looking at the warts in our democracy it's important to recognize that the president of the United States is above all laws. At least it feels that way right now. POTUS is equal to none (even a former one). And they are above all other Americans.

Our former president has graphically demonstrated that by not being held accountable yet after attempting a coup in 2021 against our republic. Despite six major court cases spanning years involving Trump's crimes, he's still not been indicted for anything.

I'm on a roll now.

This next ruling segment of society, politicians, lead a charmed life. They are seldom held accountable for their crimes (like cuddling up with generous corporations that reward them if they cast the right vote) and lack of conscience. 

I'm thinking of the GOP Freedom Caucus in the House. None of that group of crazies are being held accountable for their part in trying to overthrow our government despite mountains of evidence.

I know it sounds harsh saying there's never been true equality in our society. It doesn't make me hate America, however. I'm just recognizing reality and suggesting the fight for equality will always be waged because human beings are flawed.

In any society the super rich's influence spreads throughout government and the economy. It's just the reality of so-called civilizations. Wealth, power and influence has always been concentrated among the elite.

As it stands, as long as we remain a democracy that continues to seek equality despite the numerous challenges, we will maintain the title of the greatest democracy in the world today. 

New GOP Guidelines: How to Pretend You're Not in a Cult When You Are a Card-Carrying Member

Right-wing politicians pretending they're patriots is nothing new. 

However, Trump's minions - in and out of government - have taken the next step and are happily embracing a cult.

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Cult - total devotion to one person or a religion regarded as unorthodox or spurious.

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The common thread in all cults is a charismatic leader whose followers believe he/she can do no wrong. Enter Trump and MAGA. 

Here's the tricky part. We have MAGA pols in the House and the Senate. They play a game where they tell people they are the one's protecting the Constitution.

In fact, with the backing of Trump judges right up to the Supreme Court, they are doing just the opposite. Crushing precedents that protect people's freedoms is just one example.

Like Jekyll and Hyde, these MAGA pols show the general public one face, and then turn around and show their other face to the base.

Republicans once known as the party of conservatives have slipped into a quagmire of conspiracies churned out by our former president since he lost the 2020 election. What's more they worship Trump with mindless devotion.

According to new GOP guidelines there's proper responses to feed the mainstream media. Some examples.

Reporter - "Did Trump lose the election?" 

Trumpie - "It's debatable. There was so much fraud who can tell for sure?"

Reporter - "Who's the president of the United States?"

Trumpie - "Where are Hillary Clintons emails?"

Reporter - "Do you believe in Climate change?"

Trumpie - Hunter Biden should be charged for... (take your pick) Treason, Money Laundering, or being the son of President Joe Biden.

As it Stands, after considerable research I've been unable to locate where MAGA Membership cards are being printed. Footnote, put $20.00 down on China for me.

Is America Achieving Gun Nirvana?

The typical gun owner in America has long been a white conservative. 

But the times, they are changing.

In recent years, liberals, females and minorities have been purchasing guns in increasing numbers.

The NRA has to be ecstatic about the newly expanding market. Traditionally the gun manufactures had to gin up sales by having their political lackies create fear among people that someone was going to take their guns away.

They still do that, of course, but this new customer demand for guns is a godsend to the industry.

All of which makes me wonder if we are entering an era where happiness, is indeed a warm gun. This new segment of society's interest in owning guns will solidify our world standing as the country where guns are as common as tattoos.

This sudden slide into a gun utopia reflects (among other things) how insecure liberals, women and minorities have become. They feel like they have to stand up to conservatives and MAGA morons who are roaming the country spreading increasing violence.

I wonder... will this national arms race end up bringing Americans together in defense of democracy? Will it end in a standoff?

Or will it end up being the civil war that political pundits have been warning about in the last five years?

America's love affair with guns is in the national DNA. We used them to achieve independence against a monarchy. Many Americans feel owning guns is a guarantee to preserving their freedom.

As it stands, apparently it doesn't matter how many Americans kill other Americans, as long as gun manufactures thrive, and fear remains a sales tool. Welcome to gun nirvana.