'Out Damn Polls! You're Predictions Are Polluted:' Here's Six Reasons Why

 

Pandemic Diary - Day 228

Dear Diary,

Polls show such a different story on the same subject (person or issues) that it's hard for most people to believe them. 

I'm one of those doubters of the accuracy of polling predictions.

There's myriad reasons why there's discrepancies in polling results.

Six examples:

1. Partisanship. Who conducted the poll? If one party polls mostly its own supporters, the result will be seriously flawed.

2. The sampling. Whose being polled? All Americans? Or, just segments like minorities? What age? Gender? Is this information included in the researcher's analysis? 

3. There's often a difference between national polls and state polls, with state polls considered to be more accurate. The reason being state polls focus on counties and other factors not always considered by national polls.

4. Methodology. What were the questions asked on the poll? Were they "loaded" to get a preordained results? 

5. Polls are just a snap shot in time - some over days and others longer. The poll's results are only informative for a brief period of time before new results appear.

6. How was the poll conducted? On the phone? In person? Texting? Zoom?

There's other reasons why no one should count on any particular poll's accuracy. They are merely a source of amusement for political wonks and clueless 5:00 o'clock news watchers.

Keep this in mind; Millions of Americans in 2016 believed Hillary Clinton was going to win the race against Donald Trump easily.

When Trump won the election, the country went into mourning and was so stressed out that people still have PTSD from the trauma.

Don't believe the polls this time around. Get out and vote, if you already haven't done so. Encourage your family and friends to vote.

Too much depends upon the results of this election to become complacent.

Quote for the Day: "Democracy is not only the right to vote, it is the right to live in dignity." -Naomi Klein

Trump's Last Stand: Voter Suppression and Red Death Rallies

 
Pandemic Diary - Day 227

Dear Diary,

It's another split screen 2020 moment as Americans attend red and blue rallies days before the election.

One screen shows a Biden rally with supporters safely distancing in cars and wearing face masks. The former vice president is talking about science, unity, and reality.

On the other screen we see a Red rally with supporters packed together like sardines and not wearing face masks. Trump is pumping his tiny fists up and down and ranting about how the pandemic is over.

Trump has been holding as many as three super spreader rallies a day. His plans for holding a rally in Fayetteville, North Carolina, were cancelled due to bad weather. Ahhhh....it may save a few lives.

It's sad watching Trump supporters freezing and being hospitalized, or passing out from extreme heat, in super spreader rallies to see their TV celebrity president.

Meanwhile,

Republicans are doing their best to suppress votes, especially in swing states. The courts have been inundated with challenges to voter's rights in every state. 

The intelligence community is warning every state electoral board about cyberattacks from Russia, Iran, China and parts unknown. The frequency of the attacks have increased this week.

During these desperate waning days of the election, Trump's minions are seeing the writing-on-the wall, and it's indicating the liar-in-chief is losing the race.

They realize it's Trump's last stand even as they attempt to suppress voters from going to the polls.

Quote for the Day: "If voting didn't matter much, foreign governments wouldn't try to influence it. And if voting doesn't matter much, we wouldn't see the efforts in America to make it harder for certain people to vote. Your vote does matter. --Kim Wehle 

White House Claims the Pandemic is Over

Pandemic Diary - Day 227

Dear Diary,

After reading a press release from The White House today on how the pandemic is over, I didn't know whether to laugh, or lose my shit!

Lying this blatantly while the coronavirus is surging out of control nationwide six days before the election is nothing short of astonishing.

Especially in the light of what Trump's chief-of-staff Meadows said two days ago: "We can't control the pandemic." That's a surrender if I ever heard one.

Ignoring reality, Trump's minions repeat his lies despite pleas from professional healthcare workers who are on the front lines battling COVID-19 every day.

In the wasteland between reality and Trump's TV reality show presidency, bodies are building up in besieged hospitals in cities across the country.

Trump doesn't care. He never did. He's spent a lifetime opposing science and selling snake oil to unwary Americans. 

The latest revelation about Trump and Jared Kushner's political strategy in dealing with the pandemic comes as no surprise. He told Bob Woodward (April interview in Rage) that Trump took the US back from doctors.

For the start, their plan was to rush reopening states and pin any failures on the governors. The main component however, was DENIAL of how deadly the virus was.

From the moment Trump told Bob Woodward (January interview in Rage) that he was aware of how deadly the virus was, until he told Americans the "virus would magically go away," the game plan hinged on deception.

In a final act of denial and desperation Trump is holding up to three super spreader rallies daily. 

During his Nebraska spreader his supporters were left freezing for hours until they were bussed back to their cars. Seven people were hospitalized, and over 30 treated for weather related health conditions.

No apologies came from the Trump campaign or Trump himself. Instead, they blamed the problem on a vendor.

In summary, the pandemic is NOT over and Americans will have an opportunity to kick our liar-in-chief out of office in six days.

If you haven't already voted, please do. The nation's counting on you.

Quote for the Day: "The biggest liar in the world is They Say." -Douglas Malloch

Election Stress: It's Time to Take a Deep Breath and to Slowly Exhale

 

Pandemic Diary

Dear Diary,

Election stress is off the charts this chaotic cycle:

The anger. The lies. The steady increase of deaths from a pandemic out of control. A berserk president on a COVID-19 spreader tour across the country. 

Foreign powers trying to disrupt the election.

 A White House that admits it can't control the pandemic. 

A fight against systemic racism that's divided the country. Voter suppression and intimidation.

                              STOP!

It's time to take a deep breath and to exhale slowly. Healthcare professionals point out there's scientific reasons why it's a good idea. It doesn't take a scientist to discover how good. Just try it.

That deep-cleaning breath will allow you to pause and bring down your blood pressure. Your brain will appreciate the temporary break. The very act stimulates your brain's reward system - giving you a shot of pleasurable dopamine.

Instead of reacting in anger to every horrible thing Trump says or does, just take a deep breath. When your done, if that doesn't help, go into hibernation until the election is over.

Quote for the Day: "No one can hurt me without my permission." --Mahatma Gandhi

Trump's Scorched Earth Tactics Threatening Chaos On Election Day

 Pandemic Diary - Day 225

Dear Diary,

With one week to go Americans have to endure  blatant attempts to suppress their votes daily.

You can feel the tension on the 5 o'clock news when reporters describe armed Trump supporters lurking near polling places. 

Two days ago, armed Biden and Trump supporters stood across a street in Michigan heckling one another. It could have gone beyond that, but thankfully didn't.

Yesterday, Texas governor Abbott decided to deploy the state's National Guard troops in five major cities in case there's trouble on Nov. 3rd.

It's unclear how many troops would be sent to each city and where they would be stationed while deployed. Guard spokesman Brandon Jones said the troops might not be sent to polling stations. 

That means they could be sent to various places around the cities where protests and flare-ups are possible.

The rest of the states are girding themselves for a tough week ahead by consolidating local authorities and government agencies into action plans to protect voters.

Everyone expects trouble on Election Day, and possibly for days afterward. How scary is that? I've never seen anything like this relentless assault on our democracy by a sitting president.

Trump's minions are in the courts trying to stifle voter turnout in several swing states with decisions due this Friday.

The great divider himself has already put the nation on notice; he's not going to respect the results and plans on contesting them.

His twisted plan to take his grievances to the Supreme Court to contest the election was aided by confirming Amy Barrett days before the election.

He's planning on Barrett and the conservative majority to overthrow the election results and to crown him king.

As Trump continues to hold multi super spreader rallies daily amid a surge in the pandemic, the message is clear... Trump is counting on his good old friend CHAOS.

Quote for the Day: "It turns out that an eerie type of chaos can lurk just behind a facade of order - and yet, deep inside the chaos lurks even eerier type of order." -Douglas R. Hofstadter

McConnell Successfully Packs Supreme Court: But It's Too Late for Trump

 

Pandemic Diary - Day 224

Dear Diary,

With Amy Coney Barrett's confirmation today Mitch McConnell has achieved his lifetime dream...packing the Supreme Court with Conservatives by using every dirty trick in the book. And, adding a few new ones.

Despite getting credit for it, Trump wasn't the one who engineered the last three appointments to the Supreme Court. It was Mitch and the Federalist Society.

Trump was a useful idiot who benefited from being in the right place at the right time. 

That luck is running out for our whiner-in-charge.

Early voters - primarily Democrats and Independents - keep breaking turnout records in every state. Over 59 million people have already cast their votes.

Political pundits are predicting a voter turnout higher than anything the country has ever experienced in a presidential election. The signs of a "blue wave" are coming into focus.

Appointing a Supreme Court judge one week before Election Day is not going to turn the tide and save Trump's toupee.

His 2016 base (somewhat thinner now) was already going to support him regardless of his achievements, or failings. 

The way Barrett's confirmation was shamelessly pushed though by the GOP Senate enraged - and motivated - Democrats to turn out and vote in historic numbers. 

As if people needed anymore motivations after suffering through a pandemic with a commander-in-chief who is an ego maniac and sociopath who doesn't believe in science.

I wouldn't be surprised if McConnell could care less if Trump got re-elected.

The orange moron served his purpose and Mitch has got his legacy of packing courts.

McConnell's hypocrisy will always be his brand, and I'm confident history will show that.

As for the Supreme Court; only time will tell how much damage he did to the credibility of the nation's highest court.

Quote for the Day: "And then it seems, it's all too late..." -Petra Hermans

Democrats Break Out Their Own October Surprise: Barack Obama

 

Pandemic Diary - Day 223

Dear Diary,

After watching  our former President Barack Obama speak at a rally for Biden/Harris in Florida yesterday... I got goosebumps.

Obama is going to go down as one of the great American orators in modern times. Period. End of story. The guy can motivate a mule to vote.

Hearing him talk about nearly every important issue in America today in a 30-minute speech, was a tour de force. A master's lesson on  public speaking.

As much as I admire Joe Biden, he's never going to go down in the history books as one of our great speakers.

But, he's what America needs right now; someone with empathy who wants to unite our country.

Holding Obama back - like a secret weapon - until the waning days before Nov. 3rd, was a masterstroke by Biden's campaign.

Obama's inspirational speeches in swing states, with days left before the election, is the Democrats October Surprise for Trump and his minions.

I particularly enjoy knowing Trump is aware that Obama is part of the campaign that's going to get him kicked out of office. Knowing how much Trump hates Obama, makes the smack-downs so much sweeter.

Trump will continue to search for an October Surprise and he'll redouble his efforts to suppress voter turnouts with each passing day.

However, Americans are turning out for early voting like never before in history. Mail-in votes are being returned in record numbers in every state.

Despite Trump's vile efforts to disrupt this election, the writing is on the wall: America is sick and tired of Trump's tweets and chaotic administration.

Make sure your vote is counted. It matters that much.

Quote for the Day: "The wiser you become, the lesser you will be surprised." -Mehmet Murat ildan

 

A Long Ten Days Until America's Destiny Is Revealed

 Pandemic Diary - Day 222

Dear Diary,

America's future will be decided on Nov. 3rd. when voters across the nation brave the pandemic to vote in-person. 

Election gurus have been warning Americans that it's unlikely there will be final results in every state on that day. That it's more likely going to take several days before the record amount of mail-in ballots are counted.

In the span of two weeks we could be faced with a Constitutional crisis if Trump loses and refuses to leave The White House.

Instead of the traditional peaceful transfer of power this nation has enjoyed throughout its history, Trump is threatening everything our democracy stands for in a desperate attempt to stay in office.

Before we get to Nov. 3rd, each day will be 24 hours of open warfare between good and evil. Between fact and fiction. Between Trump's World versus Reality.

I expect to see Trump's abuse of government agencies to continue as he calls on lapdog AG Barr and other minions to arrest Biden and derail the election.

Trump's misuse of his office extends beyond American borders, as his love of dictators has shown us all in the last four years.

He's tried to get a foreign government - the Ukraine - to dig up dirt on Biden and was impeached for his efforts. 

That didn't even slow him down, because he knew he had enough spineless senators to avoid getting his fat ass kicked out of office.

That bold and craven attempt was back in February. Try to imagine how deranged Trump is right now with less than two weeks to go and he's trailing in all of the polls.

It's not going to be pretty. 

The fate of our republic is at stake. I'm hoping the United States survives this test and continues to fulfil the destiny our founders envisioned.

Quote for the Day: "Destiny is a name often given in retrospect to choices that had dramatic consequences." -J.K. Rowling

The 'Big Con' is Collapsing: Trump's Tactics Are Taking Him Down

 

Pandemic Diary - Day 221

Dear Diary,

I've been thinking about the most infamous con men throughout history lately.

For example, Victor Lustig who became infamous as "the man who sold the Eiffel Tower twice" would be considered the most audacious in some circles.  

Other names that come to mind are Lou Pearlman. Charles Ponzi. Frank Abagnal. George C. Parker. And, Bernard Madoff.

But Trump has them all beat

He pulled off the longest con in history by getting elected the president of the United States by getting the backing of every angry conspiracist, and right wing wacko in America. (The Russians helped too, but I digress)

His regime has proven to be the most chaotic in presidential history. It's been dripping with corruption since the day Trump lied under oath during his inauguration about protecting all Americans and our democratic way of life.

2020 has not been a good year for our wannabe tyrant. 

He was impeached; he failed to properly respond to a pandemic that's already killed 223,000 Americans in eight months; the economy is failing;  and he's losing his bid to remain in power.

The irony is Trump is taking himself down with a long list of childish grievances that most voters could care less about. His increasing open scorn for science and Dr. Fauci, and his inability to control his temper are losing the race for him.

He demonstrated that yesterday during the last presidential debate, and a few days ago when he was interviewed by Lesley Stahl for 60 Minutes. He lost his shit both times.

Historians say the only reason Victor Lustig didn't get away scot free with his monumental con in France was that he didn't know when to end the con.

Because Trump's long con worked in 2016, he refuses to change his tactics in 2020. It's that hubris that will finally take him down, much like his predecessor Victor Lustig.

Quote for the Day: "Hubris is one of the great renewable resources. -P.J. O'Rourke 

Tonight's Presidential Debate Isn't Going to Change Anything - But It Should Be Entertaining

 

Pandemic Diary - Day 220

Dear Diary,

The fading reality star who stole the 2016 election is facing his final curtain call tonight in the last presidential debate before Nov. 3rd.

I don't believe, for one moment, that there's any undecided voters left in the country. Trump voters are locked in.  So are Biden voters.

So why even bother having the debate if no one is left to court?

--Ratings for TV channels?

--An opportunity for Trump to suddenly win hearts and minds? (Like that'll really happen.) 

--Another opportunity for Biden to humiliate an obviously defective opponent on national TV?

--The Trump campaign is hoping for an October Surprise after a stellar performance by Trump?

--It's traditional to have three debates?

Take your pick. There can be multiple correct answers.

I'm left with one conclusion: it's going to be entertaining because Trump will put on a performance worthy of his reality TV days on The Apprentice.

If you plan on watching the debate, I suggest bringing popcorn and an alcoholic beverage of your choice. I doubt you'll ever see a political performance like this ever again.

I sure hope not.

Quote for the Day: "America is the first culture in jeopardy of amusing itself to death." -John Piper

'Trump's Army' Preparing to Intimidate Voters at the Polls - Democrats Will Be Ready

 Pandemic Diary - Day 219

Dear Diary,

It appears that some Americans are going to get a taste of the old Jim Crow politics at the polls as "Trump's Army" prepares to intimidate voters in Michigan and Minnesota.

The call to arms is coming from Trump operatives who are encouraging armed militias to monitor polling places in the two swing  states on Nov. 3rd.

In Minnesota, civil rights groups sued to block efforts by a private security company to deploy armed polling monitors, labeling the effort voter suppression.

Michigan's top election official said state police will enforce a ban on people openly carrying firearms near polling places on Election Day.

There's similar scary incidents in other states. In Florida Democratic voters are being targeted by the right-wing group Proud Boys via emails threatening harm if they don't vote for Trump.

Some officials are concerned that an attempt to block people from carrying guns to the polls will spur protests by gun rights activists outside of the voting centers.

But there's no choice. The right to vote without being intimidated is guaranteed in our government and backing down is not an option.

Violence on Election Day? Perhaps. No one really knows. Fear is driving people to vote early in every state as the data shows historic early voting nationwide.

More than 200 "Count Every Vote" demonstrations - and counting - have already been planned across the country by "Protect the Results," an effort launched by "Stand Up America" and "Indivisible" amid Trump's ongoing attacks on mail-in voting and the electoral process.

In addition, FBI and local officials have been running through worse-case scenarios in response to high tensions among voters. 

State governors are issuing public warnings that any crime that threatens the sanctity of a Nov. 3rd vote will not be tolerated.

In the end, the majority of Americans are standing up for democracy despite Trump's best efforts to denigrate it in the waning days of his regime.

Quote for the Day: "If you want to control someone, all you have to do is make them feel afraid." -Paulo Coelho